04/03/15 Watchlist Review

I'm thinking I might include 1 year Daily charts in my watchlists, so I can see the bigger picture as well when reading back through it. 3 months really only give the general trend in my opinion. Out of my 4 stocks today (I wasn't really interested in the last play though). So, Out of my 3 main stocks, NONE of them provided perfect chart patterns for long plays. OREX provided a nice Gap Up Parabolic Short, while OHRP gave a messy Weak Open, Stabilize and perk pattern (In my opinion, my gut just doesn't feel comfortable saying it gave a nice pattern, I even feel uneasy saying it was a Weak Open, Stabilize and Perk Pattern).

Anyway, I believe I did well with my small watchlist, Less is More, as they say. It's all about choosing the best Opportunities and staying out of bad trades.

Long Plays

Orexigen Therapeutics, Inc. (OREX)
Play:Weak Open + R/G. I'd like it to test the R/G a few time ideally and gear up for a big move through the $7.50 as well. Risk LOD

It would have been a better Gap Up Parabolic Play.. It came down 20c in the first minute, but I don't think that matters, it still spiked through $8 and up to $8.33..

If you were playing this as a Gap Up Parabolic, You might initially say it could get down to the G/R Line at $7.64 (Let's say $7.70).. Risk Reward must be 1-3, and if we're calling $8.50 our Risk, so You'd only want to start in at $8.30 (60c downside, 20c upside). Since the only 2 times you can add in is $8.30 and $8.40 before being prepared to cut the trade off if it breaks $8.50, you'd size in at 1/2 $ Risk on each entry..

In this case I'd have only executed 200 shares, due to my small account and risk. I'd be looking for the first big candle compared to the rest or 60% of the downside and selling the lot. Making, maybe, 20-30c/ share. Or $25-$45 after commissions.. Ideally this trade would have made me 30-40c with 600 shares at an average of $8.36.. Giving me $180-$240 or $160-$220 after commissions.

Ohr Pharmaceutical, Inc. (OHRP)
Plan: Weak Open, ideally get down to around $10-$10.20.. Higher low. Risk off LOD or $10

I called the range it would get down to with a T. You might have been able to buy when it broke out of the range at 11:15am saying it put in a higher low at 11:00am, but I wouldn't call this an extremely safe trade to take size. You really must base your risk off of worst case $9.80 (if you are ready to exit on the $10 break), to be properly safe. Which still allows you OK risk reward (as long as you'd get out above $9.85 if it did break down) since you'd be looking for it to get up to the Magnet area $10.50...

I currently wouldn't make this trade, I'm going to have to see a few more of these setups work out from my watchlist.

ZIOPHARM Oncology, Inc. (ZIOP)
Plan: Weak Open + R/G.. Risk off $12

It's not the cleanest of charts, so I'd probably have just ignored it. But you can't help but say, maybe there was some form of an ABCD pattern in the morning. It Came up, hit a high just after 10am, came down, hit a low just before 11am, put in a higher low just after 11am. Still not 100% certain if your basing the risk off the previous low and your stop off the low which just happened, or, your risk off the LOD, and your stop off the previous low.

Intrexon Corporation (XON)
Plan: Weak Open +R/G. OR an ABCD pattern

There isn't enough range (or maybe it's volatility I'm on about, not far from being the same thing though) on this stock for the price of it. It could easily collapse a dollar or 2 or 3, if something happened or something was said, and the risk reward just wouldn't be there. Remember, divide stocks over $20 or $30 by 10. And in that case, this stock went from $4.92 to $5.06 with a possible downside of 20c... Don't try to force something which just isn't there, make trading easy for yourself.