It's been a while

It's been a while since I've published a watchlist.. And I'm going to have a little rant here which I'm really just writing to write down my thoughts so It may or may not make perfect sense to you but you can see how I'm thinking anyway, I'm not a professional blogger right now and don't have time to be planning my blog posts as if I were writing a book... Sorry, lol... but anyway... I've been tracking stock patterns and trying quicker ways to make a watchlist. What I found is if I split my scan in 2, Watch 1 for charts with no Resistance on a 3 month chart and Watch 2 for charts with Resistance on a 3 month chart. These seem to be the charts that go up the following day...


I'm looking into the short side of things now.. Searching for patterns that are highly reliable and scalable.. I know I'm not large yet but if I can focus on the bigger moves and perfect them I should make more money on average than making 100 trades for $1000 or whatever..



I have 1 pattern on the Long Side which I want to perfect before I start to trade other patterns but I am looking at 2 shorting patterns which are pretty similar and have practically the setup as the long. The reason I'm choosing these 2 Short chart patterns to track are because I want to be able to differentiate between a better Long or a better Short.

Obviously I think you can't get into a trade without risk reward but what if the potential is on both sides, Long or Short. I think if it indicates to go short, Go Short. If it hold the previous support line, it hasn't technically broken down, So it could still go either way... If it then indicates to go Long, I could flip the position by buying x amount shares to cover the short + the amount of shares I want to go Long with. If this strategy works, It will allow me to get out quicker on all trades, for example, even if the risk reward wasn't ideal for a Long trade and I'm in Short, I could still cover the short and get a very quick exit for basically scratch. My Fear would be "What if" I'm Short, it indicates a Long Pattern, I get out, it doesn't break the resistance, then falls quickly through my short indicator and past my limit so I'd miss the trade.. I wouldn't worry about missing a trade if over 100 trades, I'd be right to get out 67% of the time when it breaks my Long indicator rather than waiting for it to break support/resistance (depending whether I'm Long or Short) and not getting out until the next support/resistance VS getting out when it indicates a long and getting out at or before the support line I'd have initially been waiting for it to crack. As I said I can always get back in, I just don't like the idea of "What if" it breaks down too quickly.

I'm going through videos of charts past and charts of present and I'm thinking maybe a larger timeframe can prove a real breakdown on charts that are overextended over 4 or 5 days or whatever. I'm not sure if I want to hop on the bandwagon to short stocks that are down on the previous day.. If it works, it works, but I'll have to look into it. Maybe if the stock is down the day before, has enough Volume and doesn't have Resistance for another 5 or 10%+ drop it may be worth watching...

Other than that, how much is Overextended?? X% on the previous day?? X% over 2/3/4 days?? X% this Week??? Maybe It doesn't matter?? Maybe you can find the smallest time frame where the chart hasn't had a trend break.. Say that turns out to be a 5 minute chart. Could be the 15 minute chart, could be the 1 minute chart but whatever.. That would probably be the most reliable timeframe to look for the trend break. In my own opinion, I think you could trade any day of the week and make money no matter what the range, Just make sure the risk reward is good... The reason I'm thinking I should focus on charts breaking out or that are overextended is because it's more scalable to trade larger timeframes... You're picking up on a stock with large opportunity when looking at the daily chart.. But because you're looking for the trend change on the intraday chart, you can anticipate the daily chart direction.. I wonder if it matters if it's "Overextend"... Maybe if I just watch stocks that come up on my scan, I can figure out the best ones to be watching. NEVER having over 20 in my watchlist and having at least 10.

One of the biggest factors in my opinion would be knowing the how far a stock might go to and the ability to put %'s on those areas. For an example, if the stock breaks the support line at $10, it has a 90% chance of breaking the next support line, a 70% chance of breaking the support line below that, and so on, best case would obviously be if it wwent to $0 but there would probably be a 0.01% chance of it doing that... Now, I'd only be chosing the support line where the is a 67% chance of it breaking as I should be right at least 2/3 times then but you can never really know these %'s... I do however believe you can say where it might go... Down to the Last Support, Down to the Fibonacci Line 38.5/50/61.5.... Down to the last breakout... Down to where it previously had at least 2 tops, Down to the previous Whole or Half Dollar Mark... It's about get a high probability of it breaking AT LEAST a certain point and then waiting for the trend to break...

Writing this is springing new ideas in my mind and making me question how good my Long Requirements strategy is.. Like, I know it's good but could it be better?? Am I giving myself enough room for the setup to give me an opportunity to add to my position in a smart way?? Again, I'm not adding at the moment but if I can just create a strategy which is scalable, perfect the first entry and the last exit. I will be able to have more time in the future to focus on other goals of this business which I'm creating.

It's the BIG Moves I am looking for.. I'm going to go through several hundred charts in search of my short pattern and track about 50 then tweek it, bring that number back up to 50, then tweek it again. I'll keep tweeking it until I've got as far as a 67%+ Success Rate on that pattern. Then I will identify the differences between my long setup and short setup, until I know every possible aspect that may cause a stock to go one way or another, Or will tell me to get out of my position quickly causing me to only take a minimal loss or gain. When I say a 67% success rate, I don't mean winning %, I mean the pattern Should go to where I'm saying 67% of the time... Out of the 33% of the time it does not go to that point, it doesn't mean I'm taking a loss... I could be dead right 67% of the time, but have a winning % of 75% or whatever because I'll still be getting out of my position at a profit from where I got in.



Anyway, I'm going to stick into this, I'll stick my watchlist up in a few minutes...