I said New Media Investment Group Inc. (NEWM) looks like it always has a weak open and then the dips get bought up.. So, Wait for this to but in a bottom and then a higher low, it is questionable to how far this stock could run, but it has a very good chance of having that weak open and get bought up.
Today, the stock "Gapped Up" 5c (All of 0.2%) and spiked up to $25.50, it was a pathetic gap and pathetic spike, maybe there's a link. 0.2% Gap = 2% Spike?? Conspiracy Theories here but everything is worth a look for a better understanding. Share your comments
Like I said in the watchlist, it was questionable how far it might run but there was a good chance it would have a weak open and get bought up. I'm not sure if you'd call this a weak open or not because of that morning spike but it put in a low below the red to green line, put in a bottom and gave a higher low, which was all in the plan. Again, I said "it is questionable to how far this stock could run" and I was dead on right. It couldn't even get over $25 again successfully, but it was mid day when it tried, and most mid day breakouts fail. Don't know why I put this on the top of my watchlist. But I'm making them to get better.
I said for Barnes & Noble, Inc. (BKS) that I wanted a Weak open, maybe even a wash down to $25, but wait for a higher low to be put in so that the risk can be defined. Goal can be to go R/G and pop over $26, but remember Nail It and Bail It.
Got the wash down to $25 all right, I guess it did put in a higher low at $25.10... and anywhere under $25.20 or even $25.25 wouldn't have been a desperate entry, And I'd have happily sold at the 25.60 area, 40c a share without a pullback?? Might have even sold at $25.50.. But either way, I didn't make the trade.. But this blog to is to help me improve my confidence in my trading because it's the emotions that are causing me to miss trades or take losses before I should.
Never did anything the rest of the day which I'd be interested in..
I said for Cyclacel Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (CYCC) that I was looking for a Weak Open on this stock, would like it to show some support at $1, not sure if that's too tight to give me a higher low to determine my risk correctly. Then Possible R/G and continue toward $1.50 or even $2. On the other hand this could Gap up and spike, risk would be based off whole and half dollar marks, $1.50 over and under would probably be the risk.
Well, I never got my weak open "but on the other hand" would you look at that, a Gap up and Spike. Now, I said in the watchlist before I started that I'm only focusing on Long plays at the moment and this is one example why. I had the right idea but my risk was wrong (on the short side), I'm not going to try and figure out how this trade should've been made right now, but I'll share the commentary that was shared on my brokers Top Stock Alerts page. When it was shared 1PM EST, 95% of the firm were short.
CYCC Sympathy play here to CYTX which came out of the gate running but traders got a little too excited too early and when CYTX started to crack (CYTX being a sympathy trade “should have”) didn’t and trapped early shorts before pushing them into a $2 + panic. We shorted all pops from that point forward and like the chances for a big crack late in the day. If the trade trends above $1.85 and HOLDS as support trades should be VERY cautious. If $1.70 peaks out later on can fade all day – this is your CONFIRM spot.
I said that KaloBios Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (KBIO) doesn't provide the cleanest of intraday patterns, but could very easily run to $1+ tomorrow if it gets going.. The breakout would be 54c, might have little hump in the 62c area but I don't think that would be much of a problem if it got going. Hot Sector, Had massive volume (so people are watching) and a daily chart pattern.. Best thing is to forget the intraday chart in my opinion.. If it was to crash (for whatever reason), there is support in the 42c area. So 40c upside, 10-15-20c worst case downside, Stop would really be the day lows or some sort of bearish sign, so Risk Reward isn't that bad.
Well, It never "got going" but the play could have been where, when KBIO put in a higher low at 10:10am, you could have bought it around 51c (anticipating a breakout with a defined risk) with your stop at 50c and your risk on the LOD at 49c, the r/g line was at $0.514 and was put in a top at $0.515. Once the volume came in, it annihilated that "top".. Shooting straight up to kiss 64c and hold under 63c then. Wasn't too far wrong with my numbers here. Again, obviously it didn't get going but you could've gotten out above 62c anyway, when it double topped for A FANTASTIC 21.57% GAIN.. Which I couldn't give a damn about. Risk was 2c, Reward was 11c. That's all it's about.
For AMAG Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (AMAG) I said, I was Looking for a weak open down to the $47.50-$48.50 area. Then I need an ABCD pattern before I'd buy it. But with the knowledge of it having an offering maybe, this is a short??? and Closed kind of strong yesterday near its high so it could just keep going from the gate anyway.
Got the weak open alright but no clean setups. Wasn't going to trade it anyway (like I said) due to the financing news (which I still have to learn about properly). No other comments on this one really....
For Amyris, Inc. (AMRS) I said I thought it would Gap up around $3, wash back back to today's high at $2.87, and then Spike up towards $3.50..
Well, Never got that anyway.. More of a Gap Up and Spike really, The Gap was from 2.84 Close to 2.90 Open (2.11% Gap) then spiked up to $3.10ish (6.9% spike) before washing down to $2.70 (same price as it closed today). If I was able to handle these Parabolic Shorts, the right place to short it would have been when it could break past the high at $3.11. Would have been a nice potential 40c trade. I say potential because I would hold it all down to the lows.
I said for ON Semiconductor Corp. (ONNN) that I wouldn't be mad about it because if you look at the candle of its last breakout, they're very similar.. And it didn't really didn't give any good trade opportunities.. Possible play though: Weak open, higher low, R/G.
This one really pissed me off now, it had a little gap (0.54%), opened at 12.93, had a little panic down to $12.85, rebounded up to $13 then panicked down to $12.68 (-2.46% from $13)...put in a higher low at $12.71, I could have gotten $12.73 but I was hesitating. So when it went above $12.75, I put in a limit at $12.78. I didn't get filled immediately, and I wish I did, Because I got nervous about it. If I got filled I wouldn't have been jumping out and I'd have had a nice Nail and Bail Trade. Risk was 10c, if I traded it perfectly my risk would have been 5c.
If I had traded this perfectly with minimum risk and maximum efficiency for small accounts, I'd have bought 1200 shares at $12.73. Sold half on the r/g break at 12.87 for $78 to give me padding and risked the other 600 shares for a $13 break. So let's say I sold at $12.98, I'd have made 600 X 25c = $150.. So $150+$78=$228 - Fees of $23 = $205 Profit.
Maybe I was right not to make the trade because chasing doesn't really work for small accounts. But either way, the setup was good enough. Ideal Risk: 5c. Potential Reward: 25c+
For EPAM Systems, Inc. (EPAM) that the plan is for a weak open down to the $60 area, a higher low to determine your risk and anticipation of a R/G move and continue towards $65.
Again, On the other hand, if this was to gap up a dollar, or two, or three.. and then spike quickly, risk would be based off the $70 area for $1-$3 of a pullback. Not going to play this pattern though..
Never got my weak open but it Gapped Up 55c (0.9%) and spiked from the open $61.91 to 63.50 (2.57%)... Also you kind of have the idea of whole and half dollar marks... Still a short trade, not going to trade and confuse myself just yet.
There were no safe long opportunities given on this one.
I said for Monster Worldwide, Inc. (MWW) that the play here would be a weak open, give an ABCD pattern towards the $6.50 and R/G line, then break that previous top out at $6.64 and continue towards $7.
Never gave me the plan and didn't really provide any opportunity throughout the day either.
Conclusion: up to 3 out of my 9 long watches were winners. I need to understand better what distinguishes an ideal long play from an ideal short play.. 6 out of my 9 provided short opportunities (Maybe not ideal, but they gave an opportunity)...
My long term goal is to be able to choose 5 good long plays and 5 good short plays to watch for opportunities in the morning session. And to be able to make my watchlist within 1-2 hours per night.
My short term goal is to be able to choose the best 5 long ideas and make the watchlist within 1-2 hours per night.
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